http://www.cwhdallas.com/lock-corp/
Lock Corp
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SS LAKEWOOD RPPC Steamer Freighter near Sault Ste Marie Soo Locks Erie Sand Corp |  |
0 Bid | US $9.99 | 2d 4h 5m |
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FIC HF 302 Travel Trailer (2) keys + Lock NEW Fastec Industrial Corp RV Camper | |
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US $9.99 | 5d 9h 20m |
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Marine Corps Ship Detachment pin with locking pin back | |
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US $9.99 | 9d 56m |
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GREEN LANTERN CORPS #6 DC NEW 52 RELAUNCH COMIC BOOK LOCK & LOAD 1 | |
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US $2.29 | 21d 19h 37m |
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Ford F150 - 1996 1997 1998 - Ignition Cylinder & 2 Door Locks w/Keys & Keychain | |
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US $44.12 | 6d 23h 5m |
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M1 GARAND GAS CYLINDER LOCK, ELASTIC STOP NUT CORP. MFG | |
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US $17.00 | 28d 20h 57m |
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. ADAMS-FAIRFAX CORP. 5-CENT BULK VENDOR TRAY MACHINE WITH LOCKS & "KEY" c. 1946 | |
0 Bid | US $100.00 | 3d 3h 37m |
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OEM JEEP CJ LOCK CYLINDERS WITH AMC KEY FOR FULL STEEL DOORS '76-'90 | |
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US $55.00 | 24d 23h 22m |
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Mandom Corp. Gatsby Powder Deodorant Spray With Lock (Fresh Summer) 100g | |
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US $7.94 | 27d 8h 27m |
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CAM LOCK 1 1/8" BY ESP CORP. / HUDSON LOCK | |
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US $10.00 | 29d 20h 22m |
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B-LOC Corp. B112 Locking Assembly 1 15/16" | |
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US $69.99 | 29d 2h 59m |
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Hillman Fastener Corp 830662 #10 SS SPLIT LOCK WASHER | |
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US $1.66 | 28d 21h 25m |
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M1 GARAND GAS CYLINDER LOCK, UNDERWOOD CORP. MFG | |
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US $25.00 | 28d 21h 1m |
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Plymouth Valiant-Trunk Latch & Lock w/Key & hardware | |
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US $64.50 | 28d 18h 8m |
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Inter-Tite Corp. # G-1330, Gas Plug Lock 3/4" Qty (95), $299.00 New. | |
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US $309.00 | 28d 17h 24m |
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Komelon USA Corp SL225 CHROME SELF LOCK TAPE | |
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US $10.75 | 28d 7h 44m |
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B-Loc Corp B103 Locking Assembly 1-1/2" NEW | |
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US $80.95 | 28d 1h 25m |
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vtg USAC United States Army Corps padlock Corbin Cabinet Lock Co, New Britain Co | |
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US $24.00 | 28d 27m |
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Arrow Hart 15A 250V 2P 3W Grounding Locking Twist-Lock Male Corp End Connector | |
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US $5.99 | 27d 23h 7m |
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Intermatic corp. K121 locking photo control receptacle | |
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US $14.99 | 27d 16h 38m |
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Tennsco Corp CF-846BK Card Cabinet With Lock | |
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US $1,092.02 | 27d 9h 21m |
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Tennsco Corp CF-669BK Card Cabinet With Lock | |
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US $1,031.65 | 27d 9h 21m |
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Mandom Corp. Gatsby Powder Deodorant Spray With Lock (Clear Ocean) 100g | |
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US $7.97 | 27d 8h 27m |
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Mandom Corp. Gatsby Powder Deodorant Spray With Lock (Lime Green) 100g | |
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US $7.94 | 27d 8h 27m |
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Locking 14" American Motors Corp. Wheel Cover | |
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US $29.95 | 27d 8h 9m |
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COMPASS Vntg GLASS Black ENAMEL FACE & METAL LOCKING POCKET WORKS Uni-corp Japan | |
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US $14.99 | 27d 4h 21m |
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Hillman Fastener Corp 180156 7/16-14 NYLON LOCK NUT | |
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US $4.56 | 26d 22h 29m |
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1944 Piper Aircraft Corp Lock Haven PA Ad: Peacetime Piper Cub Jo Kotula Art | |
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US $7.00 | 26d 20h 48m |
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DELUXE united states MARINE CORPS LOCK BLADE KNIFE new military marines knives | |
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US $12.99 | 26d 20h 16m |
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NEW B-LOC CORP LOCKING ASSEMBLY 1" 15/16 B103 | |
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US $14.00 | 26d 19h 3m |
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1964 BROCHURE CORPS OF ENGINEERS SOO LOCKS MICHIGAN | |
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US $1.00 | 24d 19h 48m |
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Hydra-Lock-Corp Cat 50 Tool Holder 50V875C !!NICE!! 8 | |
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US $119.98 | 24d 19h 32m |
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NEW YALE MATERIAL HANDLING CORP PART 9163003-01 LOCK & HANDLE KIT FORKLIFT TRUCK | |
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US $39.99 | 24d 19h 32m |
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Hydra-Lock-Corp Cat 50 Tool Holder 50V750F !!NICE!! 7 | |
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US $119.98 | 24d 19h 29m |
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NEW YALE MATERIAL HANDLING CORP PART 9080286-00 LOCK FOR ENGINE COVER RH RIGHT | |
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US $39.99 | 24d 19h 27m |
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L & K CORP, Solid Brass 3 In Mortise Lock Skeleton key, Patina Aged Brown Brass | |
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US $7.00 | 24d 6h 8m |
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Locking Mailbox by Fulton Corp 3495-L | |
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US $38.99 | 24d 4h 50m |
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*NEW*NOS REX LOCKING GAS CAP W/ 2 KEYS 315-VP FOR 70's-80's CHROME FINISH | |
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US $49.99 | 24d 2h 3m |
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1997 plymouth Voyager Right Front door lock switch | |
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US $9.95 | 24d 1h 39m |
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2002 Dodge Neon left front door lock control switch | |
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US $9.95 | 24d 1h 17m |
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1997 plymouth Breeze left Front door lock switch | |
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US $9.95 | 24d 1h 8m |
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2002 Dodge Neon left front door lock control switch | |
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US $9.95 | 24d 1h 5m |
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Hillman Fastener Corp 830666 1/4"SS SPLIT LOCK WASHER | |
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US $3.19 | 23d 23h 10m |
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Hillman Fastener Corp 180147 1/4-20 NYLON LOCK NUT | |
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US $4.12 | 23d 22h 45m |
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B-LOC CORP. locking assembly 4" 7/16 B400 | |
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US $39.99 | 23d 20h 55m |
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HYDRA-LOCK-CORP AC-41134 T383641D19 ~ NEW | |
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US $84.94 | 22d 20h 25m |
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Vtg Aluminum Lock Shingle Corp America Catalog-Roofing | |
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US $6.98 | 22d 15h 29m |
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Dot Line Corp Aluminum Locking Camera Case | |
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US $23.96 | 22d 6h 38m |
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Presto Lock Corp Key - Brass- Luggage/Jewelry | |
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US $4.99 | 21d 22h 57m |
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Presto Lock Corp Key - Brass | |
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US $4.99 | 21d 22h 49m |
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Wilton Cake Caddy List Price: $18.99 Sale Price: $11.35  |
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Carry decorated desserts with ease in this portable cake caddy. The 6" high clear plastic dome has 3 locking latches that hold the base securely in place wherever you go. Convenient handle gives you a firm grip for a safe trip from your car to the party. The elegant base is approximately 13" in diameter and holds and stores up to 10" round cake or pie, cupcakes, cookies, and more. 13" x 13" x 6". |
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Oggi 4 Piece Stainless Steel Canister Set with Airtight Acrylic Lid and Clamp List Price: $29.99 Sale Price: $26.24 |
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Stainless Steel / Airtight Acrylic Clamp Lids / Silicone Gaskets |
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Wilton Ultimate 3-In-1 Cupcake Caddy and Carrier List Price: $33.00 Sale Price: $12.81 |
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WILTON-It is the most convenient way to take along cakes, cupcakes, muffins and more! The Ultimate 3-In-1 Cake Caddy features an exclusive reversible cupcake tray which holds 12 standard or 24 mini cupcakes. Or, remove the tray to carry up to a 9x13 inch decorated cake on the sturdy locking base. The see-through cover has higher sides to keep icing flowers and tall decorations protected. You will also use the caddy at home, to keep pies, cookies and brownies fresh for days after baking. Measures: 17.9 long x 14.4" wide x 6.8" high. |
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Lock & Roll: A Drum & Bass DJ Mix List Price: $16.98 Sale Price: $5.65 |
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Something Bitchin This Way Comes List Price: $10.98 Sale Price: $6.98 |
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![International Dirt [Explicit]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51TSFd3ylML._SL75_.jpg) |
International Dirt [Explicit] Sale Price: $8.99 |
![Rg Veda: Part 2 [VHS]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/21Y47JG9AVL._SL75_.jpg) |
Rg Veda: Part 2 [VHS] List Price: $14.99 Sale Price: $12.71 |
![Rg Veda Part 1 [VHS]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/21JPSY9379L._SL75_.jpg) |
Rg Veda Part 1 [VHS] List Price: $14.99 Sale Price: $9.75 |
![Rg Veda [VHS]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51X9SPGFNWL._SL75_.jpg) |
Rg Veda [VHS] List Price: $19.99 |
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Sterilite 16428012 Storage Box, White Lid with See-Through Base, 12-Pack, 6-Quart List Price: $26.40 Sale Price: $17.99 |
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This set of 12 Plastic Shoe Boxes from Sterilite are not only great for storing shoes, but also craft items, toys, and school supplies. The white lid with see through base allows you to easily view the contents inside the container. Contoured base creates handles for easy transportation. Safe space by stacking multiple boxes on top of each other. |
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Command 17203 Small and Medium Picture Hanging Strips, 4 Small 8 Medium Sets of Strips List Price: $8.98 Sale Price: $6.30 |
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Make any space yours with the Command Small and Medium Picture Hanging Strips, a damage-free solution for decorating your home or office. Ideal for frames and other items 12 pounds or less, these handy strips will lock your pictures securely onto the wall. Thanks to the innovative Command Adhesive strips, you can mount and remount them without damaging your walls--no nails, tacks, or tape required.Small and Medium PictureHanging Strips (White)Weight Capacity: 12 poundsCapacity: Up to 18x24 inchesDamage-free hanging leaves no sticky residue or stains on your wallEach set of strips holds up to 12 poundsApply and remove strips in secondsHold strongly on a variety of surfaces, including paint, wood, and tileIdeal for hanging frames, pictures, and decorative itemsA damage-free solution for decorating your home or office.Innovative, Damage-Free ApplicationEasy application and removal keeps your walls damage free.Ideal for Hanging Frames and Decorative ItemsDecorating possibilities abound with the Command Picture Hanging Strips. Display framed pictures, lightweight clocks and mirrors, and artwork on just about any wall in your home. Command hanging strips lock together to firmly hold pictures up to 12 pounds.Use these hanging strips to mount a dry erase board to your fridge for leaving messages. Or add pictures and favorite memorabilia to dorm rooms, and personalize your office by hanging your diploma or awards.You can easily remove the picture hanging strips without damaging the walls, so you're free to experiment with new decorating ideas and change your environment as often as you'd like. However you hang it, your item will lock securely into place on the wall.Simple Application and Damage-Free RemovalApplying Command Hanging Strips to just about any flat, clean surface is as easy as 1, 2, 3. Allow the adhesive strip an hour to set after application, and you'll be ready to hang any item up to 3 pounds. An ideal alternative to nails, tacks, or tape, Command Adhesive holds strong, yet leaves no sticky residue or stains.To remove, simply grasp the hook and stretch the Command Strip straight down until the base and strip release from the wall. With Command Hooks, redecorating or relocating items is easier than ever.About Command Products: A Delight to Use and a Cinch to Remove3M Command products offer simple, damage-free hanging solutions for many projects in your home and office. Simplify decorating, organizing, and celebrating with an array of general and decorative hooks, picture and frame hangers, organization products, and more.Each Command product features innovative Command Adhesive Strips, which hold strongly on a variety of surfaces, including paint, wood, and tile. The adhesive removes cleanly, leaving no holes, marks, sticky residue, or stains. Replacement mounting strips are available, so you can use Command products again and again.What's in the BoxFour sets of small and eight sets of medium Command Picture Hanging Strips.Picture & Frame HangersPicture Hanging Strips Small/MediumCapacity: 4 pounds, up to 8x10 inches (small); 6 pounds, up to 18x24 inches (medium)4 small strips, 8 medium strips3 sets of strips (White)3 sets of strips (Black)4 sets of strips (White)Picture Hanging Strips LargeCapacity: 16 pounds, up to 24x36 inches4 sets of strips (White)4 sets of strips (Black)Picture HangersCapacity: 5 pounds, up to 11x17 inches1 hanger, 2 large strips3 hangers, 6 large strips3 hangers, 6 strips (for wire-backed)1 hanger, 2 strips (for wire-backed)Sticky Nail Sawtooth HangersCapacity: 5 pounds, up to 11x17 inches1 hanger, 2 large strips, 2 sets of mini stripsDecorating Clips20 clips, 24 strips40 strips, 48 clips (Value Pack) |
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Lux Products TX1500E-010 Smart Temp Programmable Thermostat List Price: $75.76 Sale Price: $34.99 |
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Reduce your energy costs and protect the environment with the Lux Products TX1500E Smart Temp Programmable Thermostat. This easy-to-use device allows you to customize your home's temperature to meet your comfort level and schedule. And because it lets you lower or raise temperature settings during off-peak hours, this programmable thermostat can save energy and reduce your utility expenses. The LUX Smart Temp Programmable ThermostatAt a Glance: Save up to 33% on energy costs and up to $180 the first year Patented speed dial for easy programming Comes preset with default energy-reducing program Electro-luminescent display for easy reading Humidity indicator and graphic filter life monitor The graphic filter monitor displays remaining filter life in either calendar days or percent remaining. The thermostat clearly shows the day, time, temperature, and filter status. View larger. Store temporary programs for weekends, vacations, and holidays. View larger. Works with Most SystemsThe TX1500E can be an energy-efficient choice that can save your family approximately 33% on energy bills. It comes preprogrammed with a default energy-conservation heating and cooling schedule that's designed to save up to $180 in energy costs over one year. The TX1500E works with most 24-volt heating and air-conditioning systems, including single-stage heating and cooling, heat pumps without auxiliary or emergency heat, central air, and Millivolt wall heaters/ gas fireplaces. Easy Programming OptionsThis thermostat is very easy to use, with a large, electroluminescent display that clearly shows the current day, time, temperature, and filter status. A simple push of the soft-touch "H" button on the front panel will show the relative humidity in the room in addition to the room temperature. Special programming options allow you to store temporary programs that can be used for long weekends, vacations, and holidays. Additionally, the TX1500 E features a patented speed dial that allows you to quickly and easily program up to four different periods per day--morning, afternoon, evening, and night. For added flexibility, you can program a different schedule for weekdays, Saturdays, and Sundays. And thanks to the keyboard lockout feature, the TX1500E is great for households with small children or other potential unauthorized users. Convenient Filter Life IndicatorFor added convenience, the 100% mercury-free TX1500E uses a graphic filter usage monitor that allows you to set filter usage limits from zero to 180 days in 30-day increments, and also 365 days in duration. The remaining filter life can be displayed in either calendar days or percent remaining, in addition to being shown with a graphical filter monitor indicator. What's in the BoxTX1500E programmable thermostat, mounting hardware, and manual. |
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Lock, Stock & Two Smoking Barrels (Widescreen Edition) List Price: $14.98 Sale Price: $3.04 |
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Cockney boys Tom, Soap, Eddie, and Bacon are in a bind; they owe seedy criminal and porn king "Hatchet" Harry a sizable amount of cash after Eddie loses half a million in a rigged game of poker. Hot on their tails is a thug named Big Chris who intends to send them all to the hospital if they don't come up with the cash in the allotted time. Add into the mix an incompetent set of ganja cultivators, two dimwitted robbers, a "madman" with an afro, and a ruthless band of drug dealers and you have an astonishing movie called Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels. Before the boys can blink, they are caught up in a labyrinth of double-crosses that lead to a multitude of dead bodies, copious amounts of drugs, and two antique rifles. Written and directed by talented newcomer Guy Ritchie, this is one of those movies that was destined to become an instant cult classic à la Reservoir Dogs. Although some comparisons were drawn between Ritchie and Quentin Tarantino, it would be unfair to discount the brilliant wit of the story and the innovative camerawork that the director brings to his debut feature. Not since The Krays has there been such an accurate depiction of the East End and its more colorful characters. Indicative of the social stratosphere in London, Ritchie's movie is a hilarious and at times touching account of friendships and loyalty. The director and his mates (who make up most of the cast) clearly are enjoying themselves here. This comes across in some shining performances, in particular from ex-footballer Vinnie Jones (Big Chris) and an over-the-top Vas Blackwood (as Rory Breaker), who very nearly steals the show. Full of quirky vernacular and clever tension-packed action sequences, Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels is a triumph--a perfect blend of intelligence, humor, and suspense. --Jeremy Storey In-your-face, serio-comic crime caper set in London's East End and focusing on four pals looking to make a big score in a card game. When the plan goes awry and they're left owing big money to a local crime boss, they hatch a desperate scheme to rip off a group of crooks who robbed a marijuana-growing operation. Nick Moran, Jason Flemyng, Jason Statham, and soccer star Vinnie Jones star; written and directed by Guy Ritchie. 108 min. Standard and Widescreen (Enhanced); Soundtrack: English Dolby Digital 5.1; Subtitles: French, Spanish; featurette; biographies; Cockney dictionary; theatrical trailers. |
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Lockout List Price: $7.93 Sale Price: $2.96 |
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Studio: Warnervision Release Date: 09/30/2008 Rating: Nr |
![Snatch [UMD for PSP]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41RGCK8NMML._SL75_.jpg) |
Snatch [UMD for PSP] List Price: $14.94 Sale Price: $5.24 |
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Usually it might seem a tad unfair to begin a review by referring to the director's missis. But then the missis in question wouldn't usually be Madonna--a woman whose ability to reinvent herself several times before breakfast seems in marked contrast to that of hubby Guy Ritchie. Certainly, this follow-up to the filmmaker's breakthrough film--the high-energy, expletive-strewn cockney-gangster movie Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels--hardly breaks new ground being, well, another high-energy, expletive-strewn cockney-gangster movie. OK, so there are some differences. This time around our low-rent hoodlums are battling over dodgy fights and stolen diamonds rather than dodgy card games and stolen drugs. There has been some minor reshuffling of the cast too, with Sting and Dexter Fletcher making way for the more bankable Benicio Del Toro and Brad Pitt, the latter pretty much stealing the whole shebang as an incomprehensible Irish gypsy. And, sure, people who really, really liked Lock, Stock--or have the memory of a goldfish--will really, really like this. The suspicion lingers, however, that if the director doesn't do something very different next time around then his career may prove to be considerably shorter than that of his missis. --Clark Collis When jewel thief Franky Four Fingers (Benicio Del Toro) takes a slight detour to London on route to delivering a huge stolen diamond to his boss in New York he unwittingly sets off an avalanche of sinister and comic events that wind their way through the rough and tumble worlds of bare-knuckle boxing Irish gypsies pawn shops pig farming and... a stray dog. SNATCH Guy Ritchie's brilliant follow up to his critically acclaimed Lock Stock and Two Smoking Barrels exposes us to his hip and helter-skelter view of London's gangster underbelly. Ritchie's characteristic fast-paced and constantly twisting story features a madcap ensemble cast of larger-than-life characters including Jason Statham an unlicensed boxing promoter; Stephen Graham his bumbling sidekick; Alan Ford the local underworld kingpin; Dennis Farina Franky's no-nonsense boss; Vinnie Jones a legendary thug; Rade Sherbedgia a psycho double-crossing Russian; and Brad Pitt in a hilarious turn as a fast-talking gypsy bare-knuckle boxer.System Requirements:Starring: Benicio Del Toro Vinnie Jones Brad Pitt Dennis Farina Jason Flemyng Mike Reid Directed By: Guy Ritchie Running Time: 103 Min. Copyright Sony Pictures Home Entertainment 2005Format: UMD Genre: ACTION/ADVENTURE Rating: R UPC: 043396119123 Manufacturer No: 11912 |
For the U.s. Economy in the New Year, the Pain Will Precede the Promise
If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”
Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.
But when the dawn does come, it will be one to remember. If U.S. President-elect Barack Obama gets it right - and I have every reason to believe that he will - then investors will be presented with the greatest investment opportunity of our generation. At that point, shares of American companies will be at such low levels that wholesale buying by individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, institutional money managers, and foreign-controlled sovereign wealth funds, will generate gains that will not only make us whole, they will make us rich once again.
A Market Mandela
Creating an analysis of the U.S. economy’s outlook for the New Year is akin to creating a mandala, a geometric work of art whose pattern, symbolically or metaphysically, represents a microcosm of the universe from the human perspective. In some Buddhist temples, mandalas are made of tiny colored beads, painstakingly created by several monks as a form of meditation. In celebration of the ever-changing nature of the universe, the mandala is then joyously shaken by its creators, until it is once again nothing more than chaos embodied in a box of colored beads.
Regardless of the big picture, analysis of a mandala - or the economy - always starts at the center and emanates outward. With the U.S. economy, that centerpiece is credit. The credit crisis has shaken the complex mandala that is our economy and transformed the United States economy into chaos. It’s complex because this economic-forecast mandala derived its form from thousands of individual pieces - in the case of the economy, from scores of data points, many of which are currently dark and foreboding.
The credit crisis we are experiencing results from the contraction - or worse, the cessation - of lending. Under normal circumstances, institutions and markets freely facilitate capital movement between lenders and borrowers. But that’s not happening, now.
Because of a lack of transparency into the balance sheets of borrowers holding such complex and illiquid securities as collateralized debt obligations, credit-default swaps, and non-performing loans, and because of increasing recessionary fears affecting businesses and households, lenders don’t want to increase their loan exposure. Banks are holding onto the cash and liquid securities they control, using them as a cushion against their own potential losses. The U.S. Treasury Department’s direct-to-bank capital injections do not alter these banking realities. In fact, as a Money Morning investigative story recently demonstrated, instead of using these taxpayer-provided infusions to increase their lending, these banks are using the money to finance takeover deals.
The Recipe for a Recession
Whether or not the United States is technically in a recession ultimately will be divined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The business-cycle dating committee of this privately run, nonprofit economic research group is right now studying five factors in an attempt to determine if the United States has entered a recession and, if so, when that downturn started, MarketWatch.com reported. Those five factors are:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
- Industrial production.
- Employment
- Income.
- Retail sales.
Regardless of any formal announcement by the NBER of whether we’re in a recession, the credit crisis guarantees a general contraction of economic activity, by every measure.
“Any doubt that we’re officially in a recession can be put aside,” Anthony Karydakis, former chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Asset Management (JPM) - and now a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business - recently wrote in Fortune magazine. “The rapid deterioration of labor markets points to a sharp decline in hours worked and output in the fourth quarter. This is likely to lead to a decline in personal consumption to the tune of 5.0% or so for that period. Since [consumer spending] makes up about 70% of the economy, the stage has already been set for real GDP to shrink at a more than 4.0% rate in the fourth quarter.”
Confirmation of that belief is evident by looking at each of the NBER’s five key indicators.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, rose 0.9% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, GDP advanced an estimated 2.8%. For the third quarter, GDP declined an estimated 0.3%. My own econometric models suggest that GDP actually contracted at a 1.5% pace in the third quarter and will decline another 2.75% in the fourth quarter. For the year, that would mean the U.S. economy actually fell 0.55%. The U.S. economy last posted a full year’s negative GDP in 1991, when it declined 0.2%. Verdict: Recession.
- Industrial Production: This measure of output by the nation’s factories and mines dropped 2.8% in September, and a very steep 6.0% in the third quarter. Verdict: Recession.
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Employment: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday that October’s unemployment rate was 6.5%, a jump of 0.4%, which was double what most economists expected, and also its highest level in 14 years. The economy has now lost a total of 1.2 million jobs since the beginning of the year, with nearly half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone, pointing to an acceleration in the pace of erosion in labor markets. Karydakis, the Stern School professor, wrote in
Fortune : “By way of comparison, during the 2001 recession and in the sluggish growth that followed in 2002-03, the unemployment rate reached a peak of only 6.3%, in June 2003. We’ve already exceeded that mark and, given that we are still in the early phase of the current recession, the unemployment rate should be expected to push toward the 7.5% range - and possibly higher - during the next three months to six months.”
Verdict: Recession. - Income: Personal income increased $24.5 billion, or 0.2%, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $25.7 billion, or 0.2%, in September. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $33.6 billion, or 0.3%. Excluding the rebate payments made to U.S. taxpayers under the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, DPI increased $30.3 billion, or 0.3%, in September, and increased $44.0 billion, or 0.4%, in August. Verdict: Too close to call.
- Retail Sales: October retail sales are coming in well below already-diminished expectations, and some reports have been downright depressing - including The Neiman Marcus Group Inc. -26.8%; The Gap Inc. (GPS) -16%; The Nordstrom Group (JWN) -15.7%; J.C. Penny Co. Inc. (JCP) -13%; Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) -9%; Ltd. Brands Inc. (LTD) -9%; Target Corp. Inc. (TGT) -4.8%; and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) +2.4%. In a report last week, Moody’s Investors Service (MCO) projected that the retail sector’s woes will continue into 2009 as consumers cut back on buying apparel, footwear and accessories “in order to save money for essentials.” The credit rating firm said in a separate report that holiday spending “will prove even weaker than expected,” amid October’s financial-market swoon. Verdict: Recession.
If U.S. exports are taken out of the GDP calculations going back to January, it’s apparent that there has been very little domestic growth in the economy. And when revisions are finalized in the next few months, we’ll be looking back at the recession that we’re all but certain is upon us right now. Until the credit markets are freed up and borrowers are extended credit at reasonable rates, it’s unlikely that credit, the centerpiece of the economy, will be anything other than a major cog in the wheel.
There are some signs of a thaw, but not anytime soon. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s lowering of the Fed Funds target rate to 1.0%, and coordinated rate reductions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, as well as other major world-wide central banks, may start to ease the stranglehold gripping the worldwide credit markets. The London interbank offered rate (Libor), a critical interest rate against which trillions of dollars of mortgages, bank loans and derivatives are priced, dropped to 2.39% last week from a high of 4.82% on Oct. 10.
The prospect of President-elect Obama’s choosing a different means of attacking the credit crisis will be closely watched and, by itself, may create an air of confidence that perceptions will change. But changed perceptions will not be enough.
The truth about our economic outlook is that it is predicated on demonstrably better transparency. If U.S. banks follow the lead of their European counterparts, which have recently been freed from fair-value, mark-to-market accounting, and which may retroactively mark assets to “internal models” back to July, then balance-sheet clarity will continue to be cloaked in darkness. Lack of confidence in the banking system will persist, especially among the banks themselves. The first order of attack needs to be the creation of a fundamental leadership position that leads to an open, transparent and accountable measure of balance sheet assets and liabilities. As long as failing banks are being propped up, this cycle of credit contraction will persist.
The outlook for the economy is inextricably tied to the price of oil. The run-up of benchmark crude this summer to the record $145 a barrel level, and its subsequent fall to half that level, has wreaked havoc throughout the economy. Similarly, the run-up in commodity prices, and their subsequent fall, also has caused a lot of damage. Together, the dramatic rise and fall in the pricde of oil and other commodities is a harbinger of greater volatility in the future.
Follow the Money
Follow the money. Capital rapidly inflated the tech-stock bubble. When that bubble burst, capital flowed into and flooded the hard-asset world of real estate. When that bubble burst fast, speculative money dove into oil and commodities. When the U.S. and world economies looked weak, those bubbles burst. The looming threat of inflation this past summer instantly gave way after the drop of oil, gold, metals and agricultural commodities. And now, deflation is seen as the looming threat on the horizon.
Which threat should we worry about?
The answer is - both. The prospect for near-term deflation seems all too real. As raw material prices fall and finished good prices fall due to a lack of purchasing power resulting from lack of credit and world-wide recessionary fears, the U.S. consumer has fundamentally changed his or her collective psychology. Is U.S. consumerism, which is responsible for 70% of GDP, in full retreat? If it is, as all measures project, then it’s likely that government stimulus efforts will overshoot their intended mark.
Just look at what the United States has done already as it battles this financial crisis. It has:
- Handed out more than $150 billion in stimulus rebate checks.
- Floated a $700 billion financial bailout rescue plan - almost $160 billion of which has already been placed.
- Bailed out American International Group Inc. (AIG), to the tune of $125 billion.
- Covered JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s bet on taking over
The Bear Stearns Cos. - to the tune of $29 billion. - Looked to lend struggling automakers $25 billion.
- Agreed to guarantee depositors at all banks.
- Stepped in to buy commercial paper that no one else will buy.
- Guaranteed money-market-fund investors.
- And backstopped the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).
And now we’re getting wind of another stimulus package and more help for everyone.
If, in six months to a year, the credit markets are facilitating borrowers again, the massive buildup of U.S. debt will result in a falling dollar and higher interest rates.
That spells inflation.
A massive re-inflation of the economy portends another flood of speculative money into oil and commodities. The cycles are increasingly condensed, more volatile and will be increasingly more disruptive.
Welcome to the brave new world of global finance and speculation.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned from $900 billion to more than $1.8 trillion. That’s 13% of GDP. The Treasury Department has telegraphed its intention to float $550 billion of debt in the fourth quarter and estimates it will have to float another $368 billion in the first quarter of 2009. Our national debt will then be close to 49% of GDP.
If there is an easing of credit in the economy, and borrowers come to market with the pent-up demand that has not been met for the past year, the competition for funds will raise interest rates. Higher interest rates will counter any stimulus effect from government programs.
Who will buy U.S. Treasury debt if the world is less apprehensive about credit quality? Lenders will once again seek higher returns, potentially forcing the Treasury Department to increase its rates. The potential of this event may sink the dollar if investors perceive that the U.S. economy is stagnant and the world is awash in dollars. The yield curve - the spread between the Treasury’s two-year and the 10-year paper - has been steepening. A steepening yield curve, where short-term borrowing costs are low and long-term rates considerably higher, is good for banks that borrow short and lend long.
But if the perception of risk diminishes, and the perception of future inflation increases, the yield curve will invert and the threat of rising rates will cause a sell-off in the short end of the curve and a rush into longer-dated maturities. Any increase in short-term interest rates would be painful for struggling banks. An inverted yield curve would be devastating, and inevitably would lead to more bank failures.
Home on the Range …
At the core of the U.S. economy sits a desperately ailing piece of the mandala - the U.S. housing market. The once bright prospect of home ownership, which historically formed a beautiful economic picture, right now doesn’t exist. For most Americans, the family home constituted the bulk of their wealth. Or at least it did. And this family financial portrait will get worse before it gets better, since the real estate collapse is far from over. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), for instance, projects another 15% drop in housing prices.
I think that’s conservative. Mortgage rates are actually rising as Fannie and Freddie have to pay higher interest on their short-term notes and bonds. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage paper averaged 6.47% last week, up from its 52-week low of 5.36%. The 15-year fixed paper was trading at 6.18%, up from its 52-week low of 4.91% (based on Bankrate.com (RATE) rate surveys). This trend is definitely not our friend. As housing prices continue to fall, and inventories stagnate and grow in many areas, homeowners are increasingly underwater and are increasingly entertaining foreclosure as a viable economic alternative to indentured servitude.
The Hope for Homeowners Plan, which looks to lower interest rates and reduce principal on mortgages, and which makes homeowners pay a share of the appreciation on their home to their lender when they sell it, was initiated in October and was expected to garner some 400,000 takers. As of last week, according to The Wall Street Journal, there had been only 42 takers. That’s not a misprint - 42 - I even checked with The Journal.
In the real estate realm, the proverbial “other shoe” hasn’t dropped yet, but certainly is dangling - and that’s commercial real estate. As homeowners writhe in agony and stop spending, retailers will go out of business, businesses of all stripes will suffer and commercial real estate will implode. The leverage left over from just the private equity foray into commercial real estate in the acquisitive 2006-2007 period is staggering. Refinancing will be impossible. Banks are stuck with hundreds of billions of dollars of leveraged loans that they took on as bridge and mezzanine financing from the private-equity shops alone, at the time believing they would be able to securitize those loans and sell them off to investors.
There’s no chance of that, now.
One deal in particular illustrates this entire mess. Private equity behemoth The Blackstone Group LP (BX) took Hilton Hotels Corp. private for $26 billion. Blackstone put up $6 billion of its own money as equity and borrowed the other $20 billion from Bear Stearns, Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Deutsche Bank AG (DB), Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (MS), Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ).
Based on a current analysis of the deal at the multiple of seven times projected cash flow that the market currently puts on Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) - Hilton’s nearest rival - if Blackstone values its property comparably, it will have to mark its Hilton holdings down 50%, because it paid 13 times projected cash flow. That wipes out all of Blackstone’s equity in the deal. What’s more, the $4 billion portion of the loan that Bear Stearns took on, courtesy of JP Morgan Chase casting off Bear’s orphaned liabilities, now sits on the Fed’s balance sheet - and isn’t likely to go anywhere anytime soon.
Until the real estate cycle completes its implosion and begins to stabilize, there’s nothing that will fundamentally alter the outlook for the economy. This is Ground Zero. President-elect Obama must resist creating only a political solution to the overwhelming economic problem of declining house prices and declining real estate prices in general. Any attempt to put a band aid on this economic plague will only delay the day of reckoning. I regret deeply the conclusion that the lake must be drained before we can realistically climb out of it. But there just aren’t enough ferrymen to get us all to shore.
Always a Silver Lining - My Forecast
The outlook for the economy is not rosy - and that’s an understatement. But there is a silver lining. Even in the near term, the stock market will present innumerable wealth-creation opportunities.
- First, there are plenty of shorting opportunities out there now, and more will present themselves in the future.
- Second, in due course - in perhaps 12-18 months - we will be presented with the investment opportunity of our generation. If President-elect Obama gets it right, and I believe he’s got the potential to bring us all together and get the country through this (and if you’re reading this Mr. President-elect, I’d like to put in my vote for [New York Fed President] Timothy Geithner as next U.S. treasury secretary), American companies will be able to be purchased so cheaply that fortunes will be made. The recovery will not only make us whole, it will make our people and our nation rich again.
I have absolutely no doubt that the United States will lead the world back into balance. The sea change that has arrived is the result of the conservative experiment having lost its true moorings, pushing the economy into disaster. Not that a wholesale swinging of the pendulum to the other side would be good. In fact, it would be disastrous. We have the potential to end up with a new, fair, transparent and judiciously regulated environment where capital formation can again spread its wings and the U.S. economy can fly.
There are new hands reaching into the colorful box of beads that comprise the American landscape and economy. From any human perspective, the United States is more than a microcosm of the universe; it is the center of the world as we know it. It will take time to construct the new mandala. We all need to meditate on the process to ensure that the design we embrace will ultimately be inclusive, forward-looking and - like all great art - an inspiration to all who view it.
[Editor’s Note: Contributing Editor R. Shah Gilani has toiled in the trading pits in Chicago, run trading desks in New York, operated as a broker/dealer and managed everything from hedge funds to currency accounts. In his recent investigation of the U.S. credit crisis, Gilani was able to provide insider insights that no other financial writer or commentator could hope to match. He drew upon the experiences and network of contacts that he developed through the years to provide Money Morning readers with the "real story" of the credit crisis - and to propose an alternate plan of action. It’s a perspective on the near-financial meltdown that more than a quarter-million readers have read in Money Morning alone - to say nothing of the hundreds of other Internet outlets worldwide that have picked up and published Gilani’s unique insights.
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About the Author
Shah Gilani is Contributing Editor of Money Morning
What are the ramifications of a media based industry vying for the Dow Jones ?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070501/bs_nm/dowjones_dc_6
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NYSE:NWS - news) has made an estimated $5 billion bid to buy Dow Jones & Co. Inc. (NYSE:DJ - news), owner of the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones said on Tuesday, in a transaction that if successful would give media mogul Rupert Murdoch a lock on global financial news.
Dow Jones' board of directors and trustees of the controlling Bancroft family are currently evaluating the unsolicited $60-a-share bid to buy out all shares outstanding of Dow Jones common stock and Class b stock in cash, or in a combination of cash and News Corp. stock.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070501/bs_nm/dowjones_dc_6
Do you have any info on the Dow (Jones ?) ?
Or the history of the Dow Jones ?
a quicker death for american free press -- as well as providing the means by which we will all line up and say "yessir" to this fetid govt!
Korean firm joins EnCana in B.C. gas
Korea Gas Corp. to invest more than $1-billion over five years, control 50 per cent of venture
Thanks for visiting!
